Istanbul (Turkey), Oct 1 (EFE) .- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its growth forecasts for the Andean countries this year, but feels that, like the rest of Latin America, the group will show signs of stabilization and recovery in 2010.
In its report “World Economic Outlook, released today, the IMF maintains that all countries in the group will grow in the whole of 2009 less or nearly equal than expected six months ago.
In 2010, the GDP the region will increase more than forecast in the last report due to improved financial conditions globally and, especially in case of commodity markets.
In recent months, commodities exporters such as Venezuela, Colombia and Peru have blamed the fall in prices in international markets, with significant losses for countries highly dependent on energy exports, such as Bolivia and Ecuador.
But the recent spike in commodity prices has improved the prospects for the region, says the IMF report, which also stresses that the business and consumer confidence has increased.
However, the international organization said that the GDP of all countries in the group will contract in 2009 compared to last year and stressed that the pace of recovery will be uneven.
Peru, for example, stalled in the first half of 2009 after several years of strong growth, but its economy will improve during the second half of the current financial year.
Venezuela registered the highest rate of inflation throughout the Americas due to heavy government spending and loose monetary policy.
Where appropriate, the situation has worsened by the decrease in revenues from the sale of oil, which prevents the application of economic stimulus policies.
PERU .- The Peruvian economy will grow this year by 1.5 percent, two percentage points less than expected six months ago and 5.8 percent in 2010.
Peruvian Inflation will be 3.2 percent in 2009 to drop to 2.0 percent in 2010 compared to 5.8 percent in 2008.
Lastly, record current account deficit of 2.1 percent of GDP in 2009 and 2.3 percent in 2010, below the 3.3 percent deficit of GDP 2008.
COLOMBIA .- The GDP Colombia in 2009 will shrink by 0.3, compared to zero percent forecast in the last report and 2.5 percent in 2008. In 2010 growth is 2.5 percent, above the 1.3 percent forecast six months ago.
Inflation for this year stands at 4.6 percent, before falling to 3.7 percent in 2010, down 7 percent from 2008.
Regarding the current account deficit, the IMF predicts will be placed this year at 2.9 percent GDP and 3.1 percent next, compared with 2.8 percent of 2008.
ECUADOR .- Ecuador’s economy will shrink this year by 1 percent, the only case in which the IMF improves prognosis compared with 2 percent decline announced in April.
In 2010, the GDP improve slightly with a rise of 1.5 percent versus 1 percent estimated six months ago.
For this year, the IMF forecasts an inflation rate of 5 percent and 3 percent in 2010, down from 8.4 percent in 2008.
The news is negative for the current account, for the Ecuadorian economy will have a deficit of 3.1 percent and 3 percent in 2010, compared with a surplus of 2.3 in 2008.
BOLIVIA .- The GDP Bolivia can not repeat this year growth of 6.1 percent in 2008 but will grow at least 2.8 percent in 2009 and 3.4 percent in 2010.
In its April report, the fund had estimated an increase of 2.2 percent for 2009 and another 2.9 percent in 2010.
The inflation rate will improve compared with 14 percent of 2008, it stood at 4.3 percent this year and 4.5 percent next.
Bolivia will achieve a surplus in its balance of payments of 1.1 percent of GDP in 2009, increasing to 1.3 percent in 2010.
VENEZUELA .- The 4.8 percent growth recorded by the GDP Venezuela in 2008 was not repeated in 2009, in which the economy will contract by 2.0 per cent, or 2010, with expected decline of 0.4 percent.
Six months ago, the IMF predicted a decline of 2.2 percent this year and another 0.5 percent in 2010.
Venezuela will post double-digit inflation, with rates of 29.5 percent in 2009 and 30 percent in 2009, lower, however, expected to last six months.
Despite what is stated in the last report, the Venezuelan economy will maintain its current account surplus, although it will be of only 1.8 of GDP this year. In 2010, it increased to 5.4 percent.